October Same-Store Sales Roundup

U.S. retailers posted October same-store sales that offered a mixed bag of results, indicating that retail is in for a disappointing holiday season.

Despite total U.S. comp. sales rising 2.1% in October, the largest increase since July 2008 according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), 52% of retailers reported October sales that came in below Wall Street estimates, according to Reuters. 

"October results are not going to give investors the overall warm and fuzzy that we're on track for a strong Christmas," said Brean Murray, Carret & Co analyst Eric Beder, "It looks like we're on track for kind of a mediocre season right now based upon October." (SOURCE: Reuters.com)

However, some industry analysts are optimistic. ICSC projects Nov. same-store sales to rise 5-8%, and holiday same-store sales to rise 1%.

The teen retail sector delivered an October surprise to analysts, claiming the "worst performer" title for the month. Aeropostale Inc. underperformed, posting same-store sales gains of 3% vs. the 14% rise analysts' estimated. Comps at American Eagle Outfitters Inc. sunk 5%, missing the 2% gain analysts projected for the company. As a result, shares in both companies dropped 13.6% and 12%, respectively, with Aeropostale experiencing its biggest one-day decline since Dec. 2008.

High end appears to be on the rise with a 1.8% increase in comp. sales in Oct. for the luxury sector, according to ICSC.

“The improvement in the stock market has had a significant impact on the affluent shopper’s willingness to spend as the luxury market has shown its first positive reading since May 2008,” said Michael Niemira, chief economist and director of research for the International Council of Shopping Centers.  (SOURCE: WWD.com)

Saks Inc. reported a comp. sales gain of 0.7% for the month, beating analysts expectations. The luxury chain reported "experienced continued weakness" in their Saks Fifth Avenue stores, however OFF 5TH and Saks Direct flourished. Management projects mid to high single digit declines in comps. for the second half of 2009.

Nordstrom, Inc. delivered a 6.5% increase in same-stores sales for the month, which topped estimates.

October comp. sales for Neiman Marcus slid 6.0%. Same-store sales in their Specialty Retail Stores segment, which includes Neiman Marcus and Bergdorf Goodman stores, fell 6.2%. Neiman Marcus Direct, which includes their online and catalog operations for Neiman, Bergdorf and Horchow, decreased 4.8%.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. continues to struggle, posting a loss of 15% for the month, slightly worse than estimates.

Macy's Inc. reported a 0.8% dip in same-store sales, slightly higher than the 0.1% decline analysts predicted according to Thomson Reuters. Online sales (macys.com and bloomingdales.com), which were up 34.6% for the month, helped the company's comp. sales by 0.6 percentage points.

Limited Brands, Inc. posted a 4% decrease in comp. sales for October, falling short of analysts' estimates of a 3.1% decline. Same-store sales losses in Victoria's Secret Stores and La Senza, 6% and 7% respectively, helped drive down Limited's comps.

US Retail Sales Rise In September, Raise Holiday Hopes

US retail sales rise in Sept, raise holiday hopes

By Jessica Wohl

CHICAGO, Oct 8 (Reuters) - U.S. retailers gave investors an early Christmas present, posting their first monthly sales increase in more than a year and suggesting wounded consumers might begin to heal in time for the crucial holiday season.

Chains such as Macy's Inc (M.N), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF.N) and Kohl's Corp (KSS.N) surprised Wall Street on Thursday with better-than-expected September sales as shoppers headed back to stores for back-to-school purchases.

"It signals a bottom," said Wharton School marketing professor Stephen Hoch. "This month was not just not as bad as we thought it could be, but it was actually not so bad."

But retail experts cautioned that the sales results did not yet presage a consumer-driven recovery to the U.S. economy. The International Council of Shopping Centers said October same-store sales should be about flat with a year earlier.

"It might be too early to say consumers are actually coming back to the stores and spending more," said Booz & Co Principal Marcelo Tau. "I still feel that there is a lot of pressure on consumers."

Based on 30 retailers, sales at stores open at least a year climbed 0.6 percent, compared with expectations for a 1.1 percent decline, according to Thomson Reuters data. Nearly 80 percent of the companies beat expectations.

READ FULL ARTICLE HERE.

H&M Sales Drop Worsens in August Because of Inventory Shortage

By Sarah Shannon

Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Hennes & Mauritz AB, Europe’s second-biggest clothing retailer, said a sales decline worsened in August because of a shortage of discounted inventory.

Revenue at stores open at least a year fell 11 percent last month, the fourth consecutive drop and worse than July’s 3 percent decrease, Stockholm-based H&M said today. The retailer also reported a 4 percent gain in third-quarter net income to 3.46 billion kronor ($504 million), below the 3.5 billion kronor average estimate of 11 analysts compiled by Bloomberg.

H&M said sales in Spain, the U.S. and France were “weak” in the third quarter because it had too little inventory to keep pace with discounting by competitors. Same-store sales declined 6 percent, though gross margins widened by 0.8 percentage points, led by internal currency hedging policies.

“The stock is down as people are looking at the markdowns and the sales deterioration,” Chris Walker, an analyst at Nomura, said by phone. “The gross margin is a positive surprise from their hedging policy, so we’re not too concerned.”

H&M fell 12 kronor, or 2.9 percent, to 396.50 kronor at 11:10 a.m. in Stockholm trading. The shares have risen 30 percent this year, compared with the 27 percent gain of rival Inditex SA.

H&M said it plans to increase store numbers by 240 this year, raising the target from 225. Planned openings include 18 Monki and Weekday stores and nine higher-priced COS outlets. The retailer will start selling fashions online in the U.K. from fall of 2010, it also said today.

‘Demonstrating Confidence’

“This is clearly demonstrating business confidence and we expect will be positively received by the market,” Alessandra Coppola, an analyst at Standard & Poor’s Equity Research in London, said by e-mail. She has a “sell” recommendation.

Third-quarter revenue was 23.5 billion kronor excluding value-added taxes, the company said, an increase of 13 percent from a year earlier, or 3 percent excluding currency swings.

“H&M results were weaker versus our expectations,” Simon Irwin, an analyst at Liberum Capital said in a report. “We believe H&M needs sustainable upgrades from same-store sales or further progress on costs to justify higher prices,” of the stock, he wrote. Irwin has a “neutral” recommendation.

(SOURCE: Bloomberg.com)

July Same-Store Sales Roundup

As The Four Tops sang, "It's the same ol' song..." for the U.S. retail industry.

For the 11th consecutive month, U.S retailers reported flat same-store sales, with many missing analysts' estimates. An unseasonably cool July and tax-free holidays pushed back to August, due to the Labor Day holiday falling late, were contributing factors to the decline in sales.

Although sales were down 5%, the results were on track with industry expectations and "consistent with the recent trends seen in May and June", according to Michael P. Niemira, chief economist of International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC). In a telephone interview with Bloomberg, Mr. Niemera said, “Although July doesn’t look much different than June or even May, I think it will probably mark the turn in the industry towards better performance from here on out".

Apparel and Department Stores continue to be the worst performing sectors, however there were a few bright spots. Gap, Inc. and Macy's, Inc., posted better-than-expected 2nd quarter earnings, sending their shares to rise. Gap's shares saw it's biggest gain since Nov. 21. Limited Brands beat analysts' estimates, which caused shares to rise 15%, it's largest gain since Oct. 28.

Improvements in gross margin and expense reductions contributed to retailers’ ability to report second-quarter profit above estimates, according to Liz Dunn, an analyst at Thomas Weisel Partners LLC in New York. (Source: Bloomberg.com)

The S&P Retail Index rose 1.4%.



Here's the July Apparel/Dept. Store same-store sales roundup:

Limited Brands beat company and analysts' expectations, posting a 7% same-store sales decline for July. The company expects August comp. sales to decline in the high single-digits.

July same-store sales for Macy's, Inc. dropped 10.7%, above Thomson Reuter's analysts' estimates of a 9.1% decline. Total sales for July totaled $1.377B, a decline of 10.7% in comparison to sales of $1.543B for the same four week period ended in Aug. 2, 2008. Minus restructuring costs, Macy's, Inc. said it expects 2nd quarter earnings of $0.15 to $0.17 per share.

Gap Inc. posted an 8% same-store sales decline for July compared to an 11% drop in July 2008. Total sales were $924M, down 7%. Sabrina Simmons, CFO of Gap Inc., said the company expects earnings per share for the 2nd quarter to be between $0.30 and $0.32.

Dillard's comp. sales slid 12% coming above analysts' estimates of 10% declines. Total sales were down 15% for the month to $439,086,000.

Abercrombie & Fitch continues their downward spiral, with same-store sales falling 28% for July. Total sales for the month were down 22% to $236M. The company believes sales were negatively affected by a shift in the timing of tax-free holidays, and later back-to-school dates.

Nordstrom's same-store sales results dropped 6.9%, beating Wall St. estimates of a double-digit decline. Total sales slid 4.1% to $809M.

Saks slightly beat estimates, reporting a 16.3% decline in comp. sales. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters estimated a 16.6% decline. Sales for the month totaled $159.7M, a 14.9% decrease.

Same-store sales for Neiman Marcus were down 27.3% to $195M for the month. Total sales decreased 25.8% to $199M. The company reported weakness across all merchandise categories and regions.

June Same-Store Sales Roundup

An unusually rainy June combined with weak consumer confidence and a rise in U.S. unemployment, lead to the tenth consecutive month of weak same-store sales for U.S. retailers.

With the unemployment rate at a 26-year high of 9.5%, consumers choose to focus on necessities and discount items, forgoing discretionary purchases. This has retailers concerned about the upcoming back-to-school sales, which gives retailers a preview of what holiday sales will look like:

“You’re going to have a lot of the clearance stuff still on the floors, and that’s going to counteract any traction in the full-price merchandise for back-to-school,” Brian Sozzi (analyst at research firm Wall Street Strategies in New York) said today in a telephone interview. (Source: Bloomberg.com)

"It could be a very difficult back-to-school shopping season," Ken Perkins, Retail Metrics president said. "If that's the case, it's going to be a negative harbinger for what we see for the holidays." (Source: Reuters.com)

Here's the apparel retail June same-store sales roundup:

Macy's June same-store sales were down 8.9%, slightly under Wall Street estimates. Results were consistent with management expectations and the company's year-to-date sales trend.

Dillard's reported soft comp. sales for June, posting a decline of 14%. Analysts predicted a 10.4% drop in same-store sales.

June same-store sales for Limited Brands dropped 12%, coming below the company's expectations of a high single digits decline. Wall St. estimated a 7.9% loss. Semi-Annual sales at both Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works negatively impacted sales, along with higher promo activity prior to this year's sales events. V.P. of Investor Relations, Amie Preston, said the company expects July comp. sales to fall in the low double digits.

The biggest loser in the high-end/luxury sector was Abercrombie & Fitch, whose June same-store sales plummeted a whopping 32%. Analysts projected comps. would decline 26.6%. Pressure from lower-priced competitors Aeropostle and Buckle has forced A&F to reconsider its stance against lowering prices according to The Wall Street Journal.

Nordstrom beat analysts' estimates, reporting a 10% drop in June same-store sales.

One of the biggest surprises was Saks Fifth Avenue which, after six consecutive months of same-store sales losses in the high double digits, beat analysts' estimates by posting a 4.4% percent dip in June comp. sales compared to their predictions of a 11.8% decline. But don't break out the bubbly just yet. The low sales drop was due to the company's shift of their designer sales event from May to June. So, once again, it's all about the big discount, much to Saks' chagrin.

Neiman Marcus June same-store sales fell 20.8% with the company experiencing weakness across all geographies and merchandise categories.

May Same-Store Sales Roundup

Major Memorial Day sales and a jump in U.S. consumer confidence in May were not enough to fend off another month of soft retail same-store sales. U.S. same-store sales for the month fell 4.8% according to Thomson Reuter vs. their estimate of a 4.1% decrease.

A 14-yr high in consumer savings and a curb on spending, both due to unemployment concerns and a troubled housing market, have negatively impacted retail sales, particularly luxury retail. Discretionary spending, which drives the luxury sector, just isn't there. Instead, consumers are focusing more on necessities such as food, gas and affordable clothing:

Upscale chains posted some of the worst May sales at stores open at least a year, or same-store sales."The high end continues to struggle, those in the discretionary spend segment are really continuing to get clocked," said Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics. (Source: Reuters)

Here's the apparel retail May same-store sales roundup:

Macy's same-store sales for May were down 9.1%, coming just under analysts' estimates of a 9.3% decline. The company says that sales were consistent with management's expectations.

Comp. sales dropped 12% for Dillard's in May, above projected declines of 8% by wall street.

Limited Brands met analysts' estimates and company expectations, posting a 7% decline in same-store sales in May. Amie Preston, V.P. Investor Relations, says the company projects comp. sales decline in the high single digits for June.

It was another weak month for high-end/luxury apparel sector. Abercrombie & Fitch reported comp. sales fell 28% for May, which was higher than analysts' estimates of a 24.2% drop.

Nordstrom's May comp. sales slipped 13.1%, slightly above the 12.7% decrease analysts predicted. The company experienced strength in Women's Coats and Dresses, Individualist, Savvy and Narrative merchandise categories.

Saks continues to suffer, posting same-store sales that plummeted 26.6%, way above analysts' predictions of 14.2%. The positive impact of a clearance event shift from April to May was offset by the designer sale event shift from May to June. Both event shifts caused a negative impact on May comp. sales.

Neiman Marcus May same-store sales declines 23.3%. Weakness was experienced across all geographies and merchandise categories.

April Same-Store Sales Round-Up

As expected, retailers benefited from the late Easter holiday, posting April same-store sales that were better than expected, as well as positive outlooks for earnings. However, overall comp. sales for the apparel sector were soft, indicating that consumer confidence is still low.

Analysts expected overall same-store sales to fall 0.2%, however Thomas Reuters reports overall same-stores sales increased 1.2%. Sans Walmart's numbers, sales fell 2.7% however that still tops the 3.4% drop analysts expected.

Still some are not impressed.

"It's hard to really ... be terribly excited," said Michael Niemira, chief economist with the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), since the results only demonstrate a move from "extreme weakness" to "moderate weakness. That progress toward improvement will continue."

The market's response was a dip in trading with the S&P Retail Index down 2%.

Here's the apparel retail round-up:

Walmart continues to prosper during these challenging economic times, posting a April comp. sales increase of 5% beating the 2.9% increase analysts' predicted. The company credits the Easter holiday shift as well as increased strength in seasonal and discretionary purchases. Walmart announced that they will no longer provide monthly comp. sales results, insteading opting to provide comp. sales results on a 13-week basis to be released during their scheduled quarterly earnings calls.

Macy's Inc.'s comp sales were down 9.1%, which were consistent with the company's expectations. The company forecasts a first-quarter loss of 19 cents to 21 cents per share, excluding restructuring costs. This beats Macy's earlier projections and Wall Street estimates of a 27 cents per share loss.

April same-store sales for Limited Brands fell 6%, slightly more than the 5.9% decline that was estimated.

High-end apparel retailers continues to struggle the most. April same-store sales for Abercrombie & Fitch were off 22% for April, which was under the 27.3% drop analysts predicted.

Nordstrom's April same-store sales dropped 10.8%, beating analysts' estimates of a 12.3% decline. The shift of the Easter holiday from March to April favorably affected sales, however the shift of the Nordstrom Rewards event for Nordstrom cardholders from late April to March offset any gains. The strongest performing merchandise categories were women's coats & dresses and junior women's apparel.

Saks Fifth Avenue continues to struggle, posting April comp. sales declines of 32%. The company blames the shift of a spring season clearance event from April to May as having a negative affect on sales results. However, management projects this event shift will positively impact sales in its second fiscal quarter.

Neiman Marcus April same-store sales fell 24.6% in its Specialty Retail Stores segment, which included Neiman Marcus stores and Bergdorf Goodman. Weakness was experiences across all geographies and merchandise categories.

A Sparkle of Light in March Same-Store Sales Reports

The apparel retail sector has reason to be a little hopeful today. Although retail same-store sales dropped in March, the declines were less than expected signaling an upturn in consumer confidence.

Reuters reports that more than half of the retailers that posted March sales, topped Wall Street estimates. Thomas Reuters' same-store sales index reports overall sales were down 1.8%, thanks to lower-than-expected sales growth from Wal-Mart. However, sans Wal-Mart's figures, sales fell 5%, slightly beating the 5.2% decline analysts predicted.

"The numbers are still soft, but given the deluge of negative news we have seen in the retail space over the last several months, it's got to be somewhat encouraging," said Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics Inc. "It looks like there is a little bit of an uptick, some pent-up demand ... for some discretionary spending." (Source: Reuters)

Investors responded to the encouraging news, pushing the Standard & Poor Retail Index up 4.6%.

The Easter shift from March to April negatively affected March sales results:

"The overall tone for March was actually stronger than the reported sales performance," said Michael P. Niemira, ICSC chief economist and director of research. "Sales performance was dampened due to several factors, two of which were calendar related; the first being a calendar-month shift that caused there to be one less Saturday in March compared with last year and the second being that Easter falls three weeks later this year, on April 12, as opposed to March 23 last year," said Niemira. "These shifts created an unfavorable month-over-month comparison with March of 2008. If we adjust for the calendar shifts sales for March were stronger than reported, in fact, up about 1 percent," Niemira added. (Source: ICSC)

Abercrombie & Fitch was the biggest loser with March same-store sales falling 34%, due to the company's continued resistance to discounting their merchandise in order to protect their brand's image. Comp. sales were weakest in week 3 and and stronger in weeks 4 and 5 reflecting the Easter shift. Weeks 4 and 5 were positively impacted by Spring clearance event. Across all brands, jeans, fragrance and fleece were the strongest categories. Comparable sales were down across all U.S. regions and Canada.

Macy's Inc. reported a 9.2% declined in same-store sales for the month of March, slightly beating Wall St. predictions of a 9.3% decline. Online sales (which include macys.com and bloomingdales.com and are included in same-store sales results) had another good month with a sales increase of 17.9% in March and 17.1% year-to-date. All figures were in line with management's expectations. Due to the Easter holiday falling in April instead of March, the company advises that the March-April period should be viewed together.

Limited Brands, Inc. reported March same-store sales decreased 9%, beating the company's expectations of a "low double digit decline" as well as analysts' estimates of a 12% decrease. The company projects mid-single digit same-store sales declines for April.

However, the struggle continues for the luxury sector.

Neiman Marcus was the worst performer in the sector, reporting same-store sales drop of 29.9% for March. The company said it experienced weakness across all regions and merchandise categories.

March Same-store sales fell 23.6% for Saks Fifth Avenue, missing Wall St. estimates of a 20.3% decline. The luxury chain experienced weakness across all merchandise categories, while Saks Direct and OFF 5TH showed strength.

Nordstrom beat analysts' estimates of a 16% decline, posting a same-store sales drop of 13.5% in March. The company reports that while the Nordstrom Rewards triple point event for Nordstrom cardholders had a favorable affect on sales, the positive results were offset by the shift in the Easter holiday from March to April. Rob Campbell, treasurer and vice-president of investor relations, said that cosmetics and junior women apparel were their strongest categories.

Apparel Sales Continue To Suffer Despite Overall Industry Increase

U.S. retailers reported their same-store sales for February and the results were better than expected.

Reports show overall retail industry same-store sales increased 0.3%, beating analysts' predictions of a decline of 1.3%, according to Thomson Reuters. The increase was due to Wal-Mart clobbering expectations by posting a 5.1% same-store sales increase, as well as retailers controlling inventory.

A few retailers beat Wall Street estimates by either posting gains, or posting declines that were less than expected. Aeropostale reported an 11% increase in same-store sales which was higher than the 6.9% increase analysts predicted. Gap Inc. said sales fell 12%, beating estimates of a15.4% decline. Limited Brands Inc., the parent company of Victoria's Secret, dropped 7% which was better than analysts' estimate of a 7.6% drop.

So, is this a sign that the apparel sector is beginning a turnaround? Not necessarily. Despite these bright spots, reports show that apparel was down 5.6% and department stores declined 9% compared to the previous year.

Macy's Inc. reported same-store sales down 8.5% for February, more than the 7.3% analysts predicted but within management's expectations. However, online sales -- which include macys.com and bloomingdales.com -- increased 16.2%.

Luxury retail continues to struggle the most as a result of consumers opting for food and necessities instead of discretionary items like high end clothing. The International Council of Shopping Centers reports February same-store sales for luxury stores dropped 19.2% compared to a 0.1% drop of all the chains it monitors.

Saks Inc. was the worst performer in the sector with a 26.8% drop in same-stores sales in February, experiencing weakness across all merchandise categories, particularly women's apparel. Eveningwear, fragrance, women's and men's accessories and their OFF 5TH stores showed relative strength for the month.

February same-store sales for Neiman Marcus tumbled 20.9% with weakness in across all regions and merchandise categories.

Nordstrom, Inc. reported February sales decline 15.4%, more than the 13.6% drop analysts predicted.

December Same-Stores Sales Results Bring The Pain To The Retail Industry

Well, the December same-store sales results of the nation's retailers are in and it ain't pretty.

Deep holiday discounts were not enough to save the apparel sector. Macy's, Inc. reported same-store sales down 4% for December, less than the 5.3% decline analysts projected.

"The holiday shopping season ended with strong sales in the fourth and fifth weeks of December after a slow start to the month and unfavorable weather conditions in the Northeast, Midwest and Pacific Northwest," said Terry J. Lundgren, Macy's, Inc. chairman, president and chief executive officer. "We went into the fourth quarter with an objective of reducing inventory levels to position us for 2009. We are pleased to have accomplished that objective with approximately 7.5 percent lower inventory on a comparable store basis at the end of December compared with last year."

Ironically, meeting that objective, via markdowns and sales, has caused the company to cut its earnings per share expectations for the fourth quarter ($0.90 to $1.00 per share vs. $1.10 to $1.30 per share) and fiscal '08 ($1.10 to $1.20 vs. $1.30 to $1.50). There are also plans to close 11 underperforming stores.

Luxury stores were hit the hardest, undoubtedly a reflection of the Wall St. layoffs and affluent consumers experiencing major losses in their investment portfolios.

Neiman Marcus, Inc. led the pack with a 27.5% drop in December same-store sales, experiencing losses across all merchandise categories.

December same-store sales for Saks, Inc. decreased 19.8%, almost twice as much as analysts predicted, with weakness in the women's apparel, outerwear, men's clothing and advanced sportswear, women's shoes, and handbags categories.

Coach, Inc., one of the few retailers that did not discount their merchandise, in an attempt to protect their "brand proposition", reported same-store sales for the quarter declined 13%. As a result, earnings expectations for the second fiscal quarter were lowered 3% to $0.67 per share.

Nordstrom, Inc. cited industry wide competitive markdowns as the reason for it not meeting earnings expectations of $0.35 to $0.45 per share.

The biggest surprise was Wal-Mart. The world's biggest retailer reported same-store sales increased 1.7%, but it didn't meet the 2.7% estimate, thus it was forced to cut earnings estimates to $0.94 per share, down from projected $1.07 per share.

Things will probably get worse for retail. Thanks to some retailers not offering discounts, they have an abundance of inventory that needs to be cleared out before the spring shipments arrive. In order to get rid of inventory, they'll be forced to discount which cuts into their bottom line. Combine that with January and February historically being slow because consumers are waiting for Spring collections.